What’s at Stake

What’s at Stake: Market Power You’ll Never Get Back

This merger isn’t just about two railroads combining — it’s about permanently restructuring who controls American freight. On Day 1, a merged UP-NS would control approximately 45% of existing freight rail traffic, and significantly more than 50% for many individual commodities. For communities and businesses already served by only UP or NS, there will simply be no alternative. No competition. No leverage. No way back.

For Houston’s East End — already hemmed in by three active rail corridors — that concentration of market power isn’t abstract. It determines what gets shipped, at what cost, and what rolls through our neighborhood.

Captive Shippers: The Problem UP Won’t Talk About

Even shippers who technically have access to multiple railroads are not safe. UP has a documented history of “bundling” — leveraging captive plants to force package deals on customers who would otherwise have competitive options. The southeast chemical corridor, which runs directly through Houston’s Ship Channel region, has been UP’s proving ground for this strategy for decades. Adding NS’s captive origins and destinations gives UP even more bundling power — and Houston’s petrochemical industry will feel it.

Can the STB Fix What’s Broken? History Says No.

Traditional regulatory remedies, such as trackage rights, may seem protective on paper. In practice, they require the merged railroad to honor its commitments — and UP has a well-documented record of failing to do so. UP has issued over 1,000 embargoes, triggering an STB investigation into common carriers.

Up has failed to meet prior merger commitments, resulting in an “endless stream of litigation.” Its CEO has publicly and repeatedly told Wall Street that UP will not acknowledge the harms from this merger and will not offer competitive fixes. Shippers and communities cannot afford to wait out protracted legal battles every time UP decides its obligations are optional.

UP’s Math Doesn’t Add Up

UP says it will pay for this merger through 10% volume growth. But UP’s last mega-merger — the 1996 Southern Pacific acquisition — resulted in reduced volumes and increased revenue per unit, producing record profits while customers paid more for worse service.

The STB should ask: if the growth doesn’t materialize, who pays? Based on history, the answer is shippers, communities, and the public.

Your Voice Is the Variable UP Is Counting On Silencing

UP filed nearly 7,000 pages with the STB. They hired consultants to solicit and ghostwrite support letters from elected officials. They built a merger website. They are doing everything they can to make this look like a done deal with broad public support.

It isn’t — unless the STB only hears from them.

The STB’s process requires real-world impact testimony. Regulators will not assume harms they haven’t heard about. If your community, your business, or your neighborhood is affected, you have to say so — because UP is counting on your silence. File a comment. Contact your elected officials. Make your voice part of the official record before the clock runs out.